Kenya post election conflict management and resolution…Memory points for mediators
Kenya has been in the international spotlight following the contested December 27, 2007 presidential election that led directly to 1,000 deaths -- plus 350,000 internally displaced people and extensive damage to property. These tragedies were the result of explicit instructions from the political leaders to engage in violence and reprisals.
The swiftness with which widespread hostility erupted demonstrates the crucial importance of credible political conflict prevention mechanisms especially in countries with tribally divided electorates and closely contested winner-take-all elections. The violence in Kenya was brought under control in approximately six weeks, but such comparatively rapid de-escalations are the exception. Once violence starts it is tremendously difficult to stop.
The conflict was resolved in part due to Kenya’s relatively broad based economy, peaceful political culture, and firm international pressure. However, negotiations between President Kibaki and opposition leader Odinga were particularly volatile. Without the skilled mediation efforts of former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete most likely a political settlement and cessation of hostilities would not have been reached in such a timely manner.
Annan kept the parties at the table for 41 days while many senior advisors and constituents urged otherwise. Simultaneously he managed public perceptions through frequent impartial and optimistic statements to the press, thus urging patience and support for the process.
Annan followed mediation’s best practices by remaining neutral, facilitating the process, not owning the outcome, engaging in effective reality testing with the leaders and their constituents, and maintaining constructive momentum by reminding parties how much had already been achieved as well as emphasizing areas of common interest.
By following such best practices the achieved accord was able to address the underlying structural causes of the conflict. The agreement creates a new influential post of Prime Minister, provides greater clout for opposition MP’s as well as a range of other constitutional amendments essential for truly broad-based power sharing.
Proper implementation of the agreement in the days ahead will be contentious and requires continued strong leadership. Senior Nigerian diplomat Prof. Oluyemi Adeniji has taken over as lead mediator, and should replicate Annan’s approach as much as possible.
Furthermore, bitter divisions at the grass roots and civil society level risk derailing the progress made between political elites. A vigorous and inclusive national reconciliation and reconstruction process should be implemented immediately with the same commitment, resources and principles employed at the political level.
-- Seth Kane
